Wednesday, February 26, 2014

A 1 In 10 Million Chance

I suppose that the supporters of the change 150 group will be touting the phrase "struck by lightening twice" after this one. Based on their MAP scores, 1 in 10 million are the chances that the special needs students at Charter Oak would have had receiving the type of scores that they were credited on ISAT if CHEATING weren't going on.

It is a sad day when educators, and those claiming to direct the moral value underpinning of our minors, not only make a fool of themselves publicly, with the display of blatant disrespect and baseline racially centered rambling, but then go even further to support causes that they would condemn others for following and practicing.

Based On The Numbers Submitted, Scores Were Manipulated
Here is the email from a university mathematician regarding the test scores submitted from Charter Oak. It seems it would have been gross negligence NOT to have done something about the irregularities...unless one really wants to believe that they were 1 in 10 million EVERY year!

"I've shown page 10 of that report to my two best friends here in the math department today. Neither of them had heard a single thing about the incident prior to looking at the numbers. They both had a good laugh over the idea that anyone could look at those numbers and not believe there was cheating going on.
If I understand what you are asking me to calculate, I think it's the likelihood of all of the kids on page 10 passing their math and reading ISAT tests, given their extremely low rank on the MAP tests. This is a rough calculation, but in the interest of keeping it simple, I just multiplied those probabilities, which is how you calculate the likelihood of multiple, independent events occurring. I threw out the kid that didn't appear on the ISAT data (he would undoubtedly have lowered the number further).
Using the median number when the report provided a range of numbers, I came up with a probability of 7.88*10^-8. Don't take it as gospel. I only spent 5 minutes on it. That means there's a likelihood of 1 in 10 million that all of those kids would have passed the 2013 math and reading ISAT tests based on their 2013 MAP scores.
Keep in mind, however, that most of those kids did not just pass the ISAT. Many of them scored in the top 20% of all students (some even top 10%). That means they didn't just pass. Some of them went from a score that would indicate they barely knew anything on the MAP test to a score that would place them in honors classes in most schools, not special ed.If the firm that had prepared the report had provided the "unlikelihood" of the full increase into account, that 1 in 10,000,000 number would drop considerably. How much I can only guess without access to the proper data, but I'm guessing it would be a dramatic, dramatic drop, like the likelihood of being struck by lightning twice on the same day."

1 comment:

  1. Don't worry, we also heard Napp talk about Lincoln and Harrison. Can't wait to share that too.